Forecasting the Canadian 2025 Economy: Shaping Growth and Innovation

As we navigate through 2025, Canada’s economic landscape is shaped by an everchanging assortment of domestic policy, external challenges, and government funding programs aimed at stimulating growth.  

With inflation stabilizing, ongoing labour market disruptions, shifts in immigration policy, and trade tensions with the U.S., Canada as a country faces a complex economic environment.  

However, strategic government funding programs can provide businesses of all sizes with crucial support for innovation and economic growth. Understanding these dynamics is key to navigating the opportunities and risks ahead. 

Affordability and Consumer Concerns Across Canada 

In 2024, Canada witnessed a rapid decline in inflation, leading the Bank of Canada to initiate interest rate cuts ahead of its G7 counterparts. Inflation has now stabilized at the Bank’s 2% target, marking a “soft-ish landing” that few anticipated.  

Essential commodities like food and shelter have seen even steeper hikes, intensifying affordability issues for many households. This scenario has thrust affordability into the spotlight, becoming a pivotal theme in the upcoming federal election. 

Government funding programs play a crucial role in addressing affordability challenges. Programs such as the Affordable Housing Fund, formerly known as the National Housing Co-Investment Fund, provide low-cost loans to developers engaged in affordable housing projects. Additionally, the Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF), a $4 billion initiative launched in May 2023, encourages municipalities to implement pro-housing policies to increase housing supply.  

Canadian Labour Market Dynamics 

The significant price surges have spurred wage demands, coinciding with a decline in Canada’s labour productivity. This combination has led to a notable uptick in work stoppages over the past two years, with disruptions affecting ports, airports, and railways. The frequency of these stoppages mirrors levels not seen in nearly four decades. Factors such as rising unit labour costs, coupled with worker concerns over affordability and automation, suggest that elevated work stoppages may persist through 2025. 

In response to these challenges, the Canadian government continues to support workforce development through funding programs such as the Canada Job Grant (CJG) and other sector-specific training programs. These hiring and training programs provide Canadian businesses with funding to train workers, upskill employees, and enhance productivity. Such initiatives are critical in equipping the workforce with the skills necessary to adapt to a rapidly evolving job market. 

Canada’s Immigration Policy Shifts and Economic Growth 

Canada’s post-pandemic era saw a surge in immigration, particularly among non-permanent residents like international students and temporary foreign workers. This influx propelled Canada’s population growth to more than 3% annually, the highest in six decades. While this rapid growth bolstered headline economic figures and potentially staved off a recession, it also strained housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. 

In response, the federal government aims to reduce the non-permanent resident population share from more than 7% to 5% by the end of 2026. However, the abruptness of this policy shift raises concerns about potential adverse effects on businesses reliant on temporary foreign workers and possible funding gaps in post-secondary education.  

To mitigate these risks, government funding programs, such as the Canada Summer Jobs (CSJ) program and targeted business support grants, continue to support employers who rely on international talent. 

Trade Tensions and External Pressures in Canada 

The re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced new uncertainties. In late 2024, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, contingent upon their efforts to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. These tariffs, which took effect on March 4, 2025, have been met with strong opposition from Canadian officials. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced a counter-measure plan including a 25% tariff on U.S. goods.  

To support industries affected by these trade disputes, government funding programs such as the Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF) provide funding support to projects that drive technological advancements and strengthen domestic supply chains. The SIF can support businesses in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, clean technology, digital industries, and health and biosciences, ensuring Canadian industries remain competitive despite global economic shifts. 

Economic Outlook Amidst Canadian Uncertainty 

Canada’s economic outlook for 2025 is characterized by a delicate balance of internal adjustments and external challenges. While strides have been made in stabilizing inflation and fostering growth, issues like affordability, labour market disruptions, immigration policy shifts, and trade tensions with the U.S. present significant hurdles.  

However, government funding programs offer crucial support in mitigating these risks, fostering innovation, and sustaining economic resilience. As businesses and individuals navigate the complexities of the current economic environment, leveraging these funding opportunities will be essential for long-term success. Contact our team to learn more.